Richard B. Jones's 20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk PDF

By Richard B. Jones

ISBN-10: 0470592419

ISBN-13: 9780470592410

Learn how to observe the elemental features of risk—regardless of the situation

We'd all prefer to dispose of threat from our decision-making, yet regrettably this aim is unachievable. No unmarried across-the-board resolution holds the facility to take on the entire surprises lifestyles throws at us. up to we attempt to prevent them, damaging results will unavoidably take place. . . occasionally. but there are belongings you can do to assist stack the deck on your prefer. You don't must be a statistician or mathematician to develop into a professional in dealing with the future's uncertainty. 20% probability of Rain allows the reader to shape a powerful realizing of probability that may be utilized to decision-making by:

  • Teaching the basic strategies of probability during the broad use of sensible events to aid the reader observe what's realized to a wide selection of situations
  • Providing genuine illustrations of possibility research, probability evaluate, and threat administration, complementing the rigorous arithmetic taught in so much chance courses
  • Communicating complicated danger ideas in an easy, transparent, and engaging demeanour utilizing real-life examples and problems
  • Including case reviews, from NASA and different industries, delivering the foundation for added discussions and permitting the reader to work out real functions of risk-based decision-making
  • From participants to companies to govt organizations, danger is the typical denominator. profitable ideas for handling the future's uncertainty or chance could appear basic and simple at the floor, but they are often super complicated and sophisticated. knowing the easiest how you can hire those multi-faceted strategies is important within the face of the ups and downs that loom in the back of each selection we make. lifestyles is really a chain of decisions and 20% probability of Rain might actually help deal with the future's uncertainty in today's dynamic, advanced, and shrinking world.

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    Extra resources for 20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk

    Sample text

    They argue that properties of memory representation and retrieval may provide a unifying framework for some seemingly disparate preference phenomena. Their preferences as memory approach suggests that preferences are neither constructed anew on each occasion nor completely stable and immutable. Besides its relevance to the material in this book on affect, their account relates closely to the discussions of reasons (Shafir, Simonson, & Smith 1993) and priming (Mandel & Johnson, 2002/Ch. , 2003/Ch.

    Goldstein and Einhorn (1987) presented the first (to our knowledge) psychological theory of preference reversals, called Expression Theory. They assumed that responses to gambles proceeded in three successive stages: (1) an encoding stage, in which the attributes of a gamble are transformed into psychological 8 For an attractive bet, the respondent starts with the amount to win, the anchor, and adjusts downward to take into account the other bet attributes. The Construction of Preference 15 attributes such as the utility of the amount to win; (2) an evaluation stage, in which the encoded elements are combined to produce an overall evaluation for each gamble; and (3) an expression stage, in which the overall evaluation is mapped onto the response scale.

    He found no preference reversals and concluded, “It is now possible to argue that preference reversal cannot be seen as a problem for behavior under uncertainty in general as long as preference reversal has not been replicated in non-gambling situations” (p. 196; emphasis in original). But these automobiles, whatever their reputations, did not have the characteristics that evoke preference reversals (they were actual cars, not attribute descriptions on which the subjects could anchor). And, as we describe later, preference reversals have been found for many nongamble stimuli.

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    20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk by Richard B. Jones

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